With COVID and the war in Ukraine, international wheat markets have been thrown for a loop over the past few years.

This upcoming grain market year could bring something different: an entire year that's decided by the weather, at least in the North American market.

Ranulf Glanville, the Chief Market Analyst at DePutter explains why.

"I think the wheat market is one where the weather really holds the key. We've come through the winter, we know the US winter wheat crop is in terrible condition in key states. Spring wheat we have big unknowns with the planting, still very wet and cold in many of the spring wheat areas in the US and Canada."

That's compounded by some upcoming warmth which could set the stage for success in some areas.

"A lot of the talk, just lately, has been a much warmer system pushing into the midwest, the bug, soft red states. Whether it's Ohio, Missouri, or even Ontario. Really what I think we're setting up for here is a really interesting spring where you could see some of the wheat markets maybe move independently."

This will all be likely so long as another major international event doesn't distort markets.

"Barring a real flare-up in somewhere like Ukraine, that catches the attention of the world wheat market, I think we could actually see some of these markets actually trade their own weather a little bit more."