Representatives from Argus Media and LeftField Commodity Research recently toured the Prairies to get a better idea on this years crop quality and production.
The Western Canadian crop tour involved two cars traveling about 2000 kilometres each, visiting about 40 farms during the first week of August.
Jonathan Dreidger, Vice President of LeftField Commodity Research says based on producer comments and random plot counts they have been able to come up with some early yield estimates.
"Based on the observations that we made over the crop tour, we made a very, very small upward yield adjustment. In some cases, I think there were enough areas where the canola looked fairly good, maybe relative to some expectations that maybe partially offset some of the worst fields that we saw. But in general, our estimate is a yield of 41 bushels per acre in a little bit of context that is a little bit below the five year average prior to 2021. So in this sense, we are still looking for a slightly below average yield for canola based on what we saw. And, again, that's not considering the frost risk component."
Dreidger says that puts the Canola estimate at 19.6 million tonnes which is on par with 2017, 2018 and 2019 production.
He cautions an early frost would cause extensive quality and yield damage because many of the canola crops are late maturing.
"I think in this particular year, I think one of the things that we might have is actually a downward skew in the range of potential outcomes in the sense that because the portion of this crop is fairly late, it is very possible that there's maybe a downward skew in the production outcome. If there is that frost event that ends up impacting a significant portion of the crops. So that's where, you know an early frost certainly would have an impact."
Dreidger noted they forecast the spring wheat production at about 26 million tonnes, which would be the third largest non-durum wheat crop since 2013 and 2020.
He puts the spring wheat yield estimate at 53.3 bushels per acre, which is slightly above the olympic five-year average of 52.4 bushels.